Summary:
Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein are two scholars that represent two schools of thought. Kahneman is a 2002 recipient of the Nobel Prize for his theory for prospect theory, which helps explain the sometimes counterintuitive choices people make under uncertainty.
Klein, a cognitive psychologist and senior scientist at MacroCognition, focuses on the power of intuition to support good decision making in high-pressure environments, such as firefighting and intensive-care units.
When asked for words of wisdom to executives when trying to make strategic decisions, Kahneman suggested that leaders improve the quality of meetings. He believes meetings should be short, offer a lot of information, and decorrelate errors.
Klein’s advice is that instead of marginalizing people that disagree with you, be curious as to why they are taking that particular position. He writes that “Curiosity is a counterforce for contempt when people are making unpopular statements.”
Article Quote:
“In strategic decisions, I’d be really concerned about overconfidence. There are often entire aspects of the problem that you can’t see—for example, am I ignoring what competitors might do?”
Using intuition to make good strategic decisions requires a sense of the expected outcome. If a particular situation is unique or the outcome is highly uncertain, then using intuition to make your decisions could easily produce a poor outcome. On the other hand, if the expected outcome is familiar, then using intuition to make decisions is really based more on past experience than any ‘gut feeling.’
For more on strategic decision making, seehttp://www.performancesolutionstech.com/category/strategicplanning/